Manipur Ethnic Conflict: A Brewing Crisis Threatening Regional Security

 

The violence that broke out between the Meitei and Kuki communities of Manipur in May 2023. It has been closed for the past several months. But from early September 2024, violence started again. Several casualties have also occurred here in recent times. Even for the first time in the history of India, a bomb was dropped from a drone. Also locally, indigenously developed missiles or rockets have also been used. The ethnically diverse and marginalized township has been plagued by separatist movements, violence and politics of marginalization for decades. What is behind the current instability in this northeastern state of India?

Ethnic conflict in Manipur is about the beginning

Manipur is one of the seven states known as the 'Seven Sisters' in the northeastern region of India. From Sylhet in Bangladesh, the boundary of Manipur state starts across Assam's Silchar district to the east. Manipur has no border with Bangladesh. However, Manipur has a border with Myanmar in its eastern part and there is considerable instability along that border. 

Diverse in nature Manipur has been inhabited by various ethnic groups since ancient times, and the tribal groups of the hills and plains have been living together for ages, who are mainly of Sino-Tibetan ethnic group. But each of them has its own language and culture.

Manipur is one of the states that had the status of 'princely states' in India during the British colonial rule. Like Kashmir, Manipur was not annexed to India immediately after India's independence. Rather, in 1949, they joined the British system of India. Maharaja Buddhacharan, the ruler of Manipur, signed an agreement with the Government of India in this regard. And from that the movement of separatism also started in that state.

Recent causes of ethnic conflict in Manipur

The incident arose out of a demand by the predominantly minority Meitei community to be officially recognized as tribals. By doing this they will get several additional benefits including quota. On the other hand, the Kuki community strongly opposes the Meitei community's claim. Because the argument of the Kuki community is that the Meitei community has already exerted a monopoly on the government and society of the state. Recognizing them as tribals in such a situation would make them a stronger position.

Even then, people from the Meitei community, a minority Kuki community, will be able to buy land or settle. The Kuki community alleges that the current government led by the Meitei community is trying to suppress the Kuki community under the guise of declaring a war on drugs. 

On the other hand, illegal infiltration from Myanmar seems to increase the tension in Manipur state. Increasing population growth has also put pressure on land use. As a result, unemployment is created. And due to this unemployment, a significant part of the youth is joining the militia forces.

Separate militias of the Meitei, Kuki and Naga communities have formed in the state. The forces are fighting each other over religious differences and claims of mother land. Even each of these three groups has again engaged in conflict with Indian security forces.

However, the recent violence was organized only within the Meitei and Kuki communities. Dhiren A Sadokpam, editor of The Frontier Manipur, said, "The root of the conflict this time is caste; not religion."

The Meitei community lives in Manipur, Myanmar and surrounding areas. Most of them are Hindus. But some are followers of Sanamahi religion. On the other hand, the Kuki community lives throughout North East India. Many of these communities living in Manipur consider themselves to be residents of Myanmar. 

Majority of the Kuki population follow Christianity. The people of the Meitei community mostly live in the Imphal Valley, the capital city of the state. On the other hand, the Koki community lives in the surrounding hilly areas.

How dangerous is ethnic conflict in Manipur to regional security?

01.The conflict situation in India's Manipur, a neighboring state of Bangladesh's Chittagong Hill Tracts, shows no sign of abating. A bloody clash between Kukis and Meiteids in Manipur has left many dead and many seriously injured. 

The insurgents are also trying to continue the blockade of National Highway 2, the supply line of Manipur. Jujudhan Union People's Front and Kuki National Agency are active on the political and military fronts to maintain their authority, based on the news published in the media about Manipur.

02. Tension has continued in Manipur, India for over a year. Manipur is one of the seven hill states of Northeast India, collectively known as the 'Seven Sisters'. In the past, due to the armed insurgencies of the Naga, Mizo, Boro tribes, Northeast India was called a volatile, bloody and heated region of ethnic conflict. 

The ongoing terror, bloodshed and unrest in Manipur are reviving those horrific memories and creating a security risk in Northeast India, from which there are fears that the surrounding region will be spared. Because the center of the conflict is adjacent to Bangladesh and Myanmar and the insurgents live and move freely in all three countries, the danger of turning it into a regional security problem cannot be ruled out.

 In particular, the existence of multiple bases of Kuki terrorists in Bandarban, Chittagong Hill Tracts led to security forces conducting operations and recovered ammunition, arms and arrested some terrorists. Moreover, tourists are not coming due to the ongoing unstable environment of the hills and the travel ban in the three upazilas of Bandarban.

Fewer tourists have been noticed even after offering various discounts to attract tourists. The tourism traders of the district are disappointed. As a result, the tourism sector is losing crores of rupees daily. These data are a clear indication of security issues as well as financial crisis in the region of Sampriti Hills. After the peace agreement was signed in 1997, these issues are a hidden threat in Chittagong Hill Tracts and are early warning signs for future security.

03. Incidentally, in the Indian state of Manipur, over a hundred people have died in ethnic clashes in the last one year. The army has also faced protests after bringing the situation under control. As the ongoing tension continues, Amit Shah, the leader of the ruling party BJP and India's Home Minister, and Rahul Gandhi, the top leader of one of the main political parties, Indian National Congress, visited Manipur in 2023. The leaders visited various refugee camps and held meetings with Meitei, Kuki and Nagas.

Experts say, Manipur Patriotic Party thinks that this problem of Manipur was created during the Congress. It was the Congress government that forcibly annexed independent Manipur to India in 1949. The people of Manipur could never accept that merger, hence the long history of armed struggle in the state.

04. Meanwhile, while the Kukis in Manipur are pushing for a separate state or separate administration, adding fuel to the demand, Mizoram Chief Minister Joramthanga says that since 1961, his party has been fighting to bring all the Jo clans under one umbrella. As a result, it is not difficult to understand that the problem of Manipur is not limited only to the state of Manipur. 

It also spread among the Kuki and allied tribes living in the neighboring states. In such a situation, the position of the Kuki community living in Myanmar and Bangladesh bordering Manipur and India's northeastern region is undoubtedly conceivable. Ethnic and religious homogeneity as well as neo-initiated Christian identities could unite them politically and militarily with radical nationalist 'cookieland' movements and arm the population living in India, Myanmar and Bangladesh through the frenzy-induced extremism of greater kookie nationalism towards a 'greater cookieland' movement.

As a result, there is little opportunity to look at the military and political activities of the Kukis in Bangladesh and the information regarding the training camps and bases in isolation from the overall regional situation.

05. The Manipur High Court had directed the state government to consider granting Scheduled Tribe status to the Meiteids. After that, the people's organizations started to oppose him. And hence the conflict in Manipur, led by Kuki and related tribal groups. Later the political movement took an armed form. Apart from the looting of government arsenals, easy supply of arms from drug and arms dealers in the India-Myanmar-Bangladesh connectivity triangle did not delay the situation from becoming armed.

06. Blame for the fiery situation and terrorism in India's northeastern state of Manipur has seemingly been pointed at the Kuki ethnic group. Indian security experts are keenly observing whether the separatists have anything to do with this particularly violent situation in Manipur and what the political and military response to the conflict between the two ethnic groups might be. 

In 2020, in view of a fierce clash with the Chinese army, the members of the Indian army engaged in counter-insurgency in Manipur were withdrawn from there. Now troops have been sent back to Manipur to restore internal security. The Indian Army is likely hoping for a quick return to normalcy in the state, but experts do not think it is impossible without any political initiative from the Modi government.

07. While the recent violence in Manipur is generally and primarily considered a security issue, its historical background and political aspect and geopolitical importance should not be overlooked. In particular, if politics fuels division rather than building bridges between conflicting ethnic groups, the risk of deterioration and violence increases. This short-sighted view has led to protracted armed ethnic conflicts in various countries around the world. 

In case of Manipur Kukis mistrust politicians and police. Loot the armory. Wants to go the way of violence. Even if the army is deployed in such a fragile and fragile situation, peace does not come easily. Tensions continue to prevail between the army and terrorists, which could have been avoided if political action had been taken earlier. 

As a result, not only Manipur, but also in neighboring Indian states, it is advisable to take dialogue and strong political action to resolve ethnic distrust and conflict. Similarly, military preparedness as well as political power must first play a leading role in maintaining peace, security and stability in the tribal areas of India's neighboring Myanmar and Bangladesh.

08. The geopolitical importance of ethnic terrorism in Manipur is also high. There is also a risk of the unrest spreading to wider areas nearby. The Kukis share ethnographic similarities with the Chin people of Myanmar and the Kuki/Bom of Bangladesh and the Mizo people of Mizoram state in India. Hundreds of Kukis fled to Myanmar in the wake of the violence. They can also enter Bangladesh.

The mistreatment of cookies is also creating outrage in the neighboring state of Mizoram. The state emerged from the Mizo-led insurgency in 1986. Nagas also have the sympathies of their ethnic Kuki brothers in the rebellion in Nagaland state. It is one of the longest ongoing insurgencies in the world. There the Naga people demanded their own flag and constitution.

09. In the current global environment, local or regional issues are rapidly gaining international dimension. India's Manipur and associated Myanmar and Bangladesh are marginal to the larger Indo-Pacific region as they lie along the coastline of the Bay of Bengal. 

And in the Indo-Pacific America, Russia, China and European powers are active in various degrees. As a result, the events of Northeast India and neighboring countries are not beyond the attention and interest of world powers. Therefore, as security risks increase in these regions, they will also be shaken.

Presumably due to regional importance, India announced the policy of 'Act East' in 2015. It emphasizes on connecting the Northeast region of India with nearby Southeast Asia through trade, culture, people-to-people contacts and physical infrastructure. But the infrastructural progress has not been according to that; Some delayed projects have become operational only in recent months. 

If the violence in Manipur spreads beyond the state's borders, it will further disrupt the 'Act East' policy, say experts. According to them, the policy is indirectly linked to the US Indo-Pacific strategy which is being implemented on the model of quadrilateral security dialogue called 'Quad'. As a result, the deterioration of the overall situation may lead to important changes in the Indo-Pacific strategy, which may increase the footprint of the superpowers in the region and create multifaceted risks.

10. The fragile situation in India's northeast is equivalent to a box full of gunpowder. It is feared that the violence in Manipur could provide a dangerous spark. Therefore the issue demands direct participation and intervention of Indian politics. New Delhi should, not just follow the military path. De-escalate the crisis and restore peace through routine political and administrative processes as soon as possible. 

If India is not able to restore normalcy in Manipur soon, the risk of challenges from China on the border will increase and affect the Quad as well. Violence and conflict are not a common security problem in remote states like Manipur. These developments could also have a dire impact on the geopolitics of South Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific region.

In such a background, the course of events in neighboring Manipur has to be closely monitored. Bangladesh. Bangladesh has to be fully alert and alert from the political, military and strategic aspects so that any kind of impact of the incident cannot spread to Manipur-adjacent Chittagong Hill Tracts. Currently, Bangladesh is already under various pressures in the interim period. In such a situation, maintaining peace, security and stability is a matter of greater urgency and priority.